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Analyst: Coach Turnaround Will Take Years And Capital COH KORS TIF

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Analyst: Coach Turnaround Will Take Years And Capital
Wed, May 28 2014 00:00:00 E
00_WEB
By MARILYN ALVA , INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY  Posted  05/28/2014 03:02 PM ET

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Turnaround efforts at ailing retailer Coach will likely take years and involve multiple initiatives, JPMorgan analyst Brian Tunick said in a note published Wednesday after meeting with senior management.
The message from senior leaders was consistent, he wrote: "The turnaround is going to take time and capital to reposition ( Coach (NYSE: COH ) in this new competitive landscape."
Coach is believed to have been losing share in its core handbags and accessories business to Michael Kors (NYSE: KORS ), one of the hottest retail brands in the U.S. and Europe in recent years.
  View Enlarged Image Luxury and affordable-luxury retailers have generally been doing well, Tiffany (NYSE: TIF ) among them. But Coach has been the exception.
Coach's same-store sales in North America plunged 21% in Q1 on weakness in women's handbags and accessories. The company has logged flat or modest earnings gains for five straight quarters. And it's expected to post double-digit declines for the remaining three quarters of its fiscal year and well into the next year.
In contrast, Michael Kors, which soundly beat estimates in its fourth quarter report Wednesday morning, is expected to continue to post strong double-digit profit gains. Tiffany's earnings are also seen rising in double digits, though not as much as Michael Kors.
What is Coach to do? Practically no aspect of the business will go untouched, according to Tunick, from product, design and stores to all aspects of marketing, including online and social media.
The "house of leather," he said, needs to become viewed as a "fashion authority."
"Other competitors have done a better job of tying in their brands to fashion, seasonality and a sense of 'I just have to have it,'" he said.
Coach's weak sales guidance for fiscal 2015 is partly due to its continued downsizing of domestic full-price stores, Tunick said. The outlet channel is believed to be two to three times more productive, with store margins above full-price stores, he added.
Management reiterated the following message several times, he said: "If we thought that factory (outlet selling) was degrading to the brand, we would have closed factory stores. Is it the root of our brand perception issues? We don't think so."
Tunick expects Coach to provide more details on store plans at a meeting with analysts on June 19, including Studio Sofield rollouts at full-price stores and newly designed lifestyle stores.
Related: Michael Kors Earnings Strong But Margins Hemmed In ?
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http://news./business/052814-702415-coach-earnings-keep-declining-while-michael-kors-rises.htm
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